“We attended Intel's (NASDAQ: INTC) analyst meeting,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a report this morning. Our key takeaways are:
(1) 2Q and 2011 guidance are unchanged, with Intel expecting strength in emerging markets to lead to PC unit growth of 10%+ in 2011.
“While the GS 2011 PC forecast of a 4% yoy increase assumes 12% growth in Asia ex Japan and 14% in other emerging markets, this is mostly offset by a 4% yoy decline in the US and 10% in Western Europe.
(2) Intel estimates that PC units will grow at a 14% CAGR from 2010-2013, vs. its expectation last year of a 15%- 16% CAGR from 2010-2014. Intel's forecast assumes about 5% growth in developed markets and minimal tablet cannibalization.
(3) Intel expects phones with its chips to be in the market in 1H12, although it did not announce design wins.
“We expect investors will be skeptical until there is sell-through, given similar targets the company has articulated in the past.
(4) Management estimates it will have $1 bn+ of EBIT from its other Intel Architecture Group (netbooks, tablets, phones, embedded, etc.) by 2013, or about $0.15 of EPS.
(5) Intel expects its Data Center revenues to grow at a 15% CAGR from 2010 to 2015.
“We believe Intel's best-in-class performance and enterprise features will allow it to execute well in this market.
(6) Intel plans to maintain a roughly 40% payout ratio of FCF for its dividend.
(7) Intel expects its 2012 gross margin will be 60%-65%, vs. our 55% estimate.”
Intel closed Tuesday at $23.55.
