在我生长的环境里，生日从来都不是多大一件事，在国内吃碗长寿面也就过了。
今年疫情中在家，下了面也做了几个菜，就正式的进入了虚的一甲子了....
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
Sunday, April 19, 2020
Home Audio Studio
The Perfect First Studio for Newbies
With the following 9 items:
- A Computer
- DAW/Audio Interface Combo
- Studio Monito
- One or Two Microphones
- Headphones
- A Few Cables
- One Mic Stand
- A Pop Filter
- Ear Training Software
投资股票还是地产？
我30年前来美国，拿到学位，找到第一份稳定工作，然后换了几份工作，工资当然是越换越高。失业过一次，大约2个月，今年3月退休。太太比我早来二年，基本情况差不多。一个孩子，2007年大学毕业，学金融的，一直在金融业工作。
投资是我的副业，投资股票和房子都有25到30年的经历，看过教科书，听过各种讲座。如今退休，股票还有没卖掉的，包括IRA，401K及其它投资账户，房子除了自住的，也有一些出租的。总资产应该是足够应付退休生活了。我的收入：
1. 社安退休金，每年约2万5多一点，这是保证的。还有1万5左右的年金。
2. 租金现金流，一切正常大约每年有4万，如果发生意外，每年2万应该是大概率保证。
3. 退休金账户取钱，政府有最低取款要求，平均每年准备取出3万，取30年应该没问题。
4. 到年龄再大些，考虑把国内的房子卖掉，在美国的房子也考虑逐步卖掉。
这样基本能保证每年有10万元可支配使用。如果上帝让我活到90岁以上，考虑到那时要请个24小时护理工，或者人事不省送养老院，这些额外费用，恐怕还要卖掉一幢出租房才行。
为何要讲这些，就是告诉现在的中年朋友（平均年龄40岁），再工作25到30年退休，积累一笔充裕的财产是相当可行的。我和太太的双方父母在世的时候，都需要我们负担一部分生活费，特别是最后几年，花钱就像流水。我们所有的财富，都是在美国靠自己奋斗取得的。感谢美国接受我们，感谢美国给我们机会致富。
如何投资？我一开始是利用IRA投资股票，大约94年开始投资房产。儿子大学毕业后，我和他讨论过投资股票的事，今天写出来和大家分享。首先，在美国只有极少一部分人能预测市场，而且每一个人只能预测其中很小很小一部分的市场。比如，我儿子刚毕业，老板就分配他研究communication方面的市场，每周工作90小时以上。年薪账面上是很高，仔细一算，每小时20元都不到，但这种训练是必须的。而且可以告诉大家，他们是绝对不会把任何诀窍告诉别人。父母都不会。所以，股市大亨看上去很少，其实是人家低调。文学城有“股票派”和“掏粪派”有时大家不服气，这是正常的。没有金刚钻，就别揽瓷器活。而且，即便是顶尖的股票专家，在他的领域里，能正确预测股票走向概率的不会超过七成。一般人就是五成左右。所以大部分买股票赚钱的，都是长期持有，和股市共舞。
举个自己的例子：1995年，道指大约是4000点，三月初是2万8千点。现在经过大跌熔断，周五收盘2万2千点。换句话讲，当年投资1万元，现在市值大约是5.5万。我在同期买的一个出租房，4万五千，现在卖出到手现金大约是25万到30万之间。但这不能就此得出结论：投资房产比股票好。你当年买了1万元指数股票，接下来你几乎没有再花精力和时间，而买了房子出租，你会付出很多精力和时间。如果你把这些精力和时间用来赚钱，岂不更好。
投资股票和房地产的人，一定在某些方面有过人的本事。投资股票的能看懂各种曲线，对某些行业的经营方式，技术水平，相关联系，各种报表都要有过人的理解能力。投资房产，最好是汗滴男，还要会和银行打交道，得到优惠利率，对房客黑白两手都会，必要时还要上法庭，身心疲惫。
哪个容易？我的体会是投资股票。因为如上面讲的，能预测股市，哪怕是很小一块，都是非常困难的。华尔街的名言：一般投资股票的，和一只猴子跳上键盘买股票，收益相差无几。正是因为难，中国人投资股票的人很多，但赚钱不多，赚大钱的必须是专业人才里的专业。当我明白这个道理后，我买股票基本就是指数股，根本不用花很多时间去研究某个具体股票，而且现在买进卖出都不收手续费。比如今年3月中旬开始，我新开一个投资账户，放入10万元，每周平均投资2万元指数股票。今天看了一下，回收率大约10%，还算不错。股市上有许多指数股，随便挑一个就行，每个投资1万元，买10个指数股。这10万元投资，花费时间大约一个小时。不是讲我放弃投资房产，主要是投资平衡，另外年龄大了，体力不够了。
就我的近30年投资股市和房产经历而言，哪个回报好？房产。因为我花了大量的时间掏粪，时间就是金钱。喜欢什么？股票，因为资金回收相对容易。还继续投资吗？当然，二个都继续投资。
投资是我的副业，投资股票和房子都有25到30年的经历，看过教科书，听过各种讲座。如今退休，股票还有没卖掉的，包括IRA，401K及其它投资账户，房子除了自住的，也有一些出租的。总资产应该是足够应付退休生活了。我的收入：
1. 社安退休金，每年约2万5多一点，这是保证的。还有1万5左右的年金。
2. 租金现金流，一切正常大约每年有4万，如果发生意外，每年2万应该是大概率保证。
3. 退休金账户取钱，政府有最低取款要求，平均每年准备取出3万，取30年应该没问题。
4. 到年龄再大些，考虑把国内的房子卖掉，在美国的房子也考虑逐步卖掉。
这样基本能保证每年有10万元可支配使用。如果上帝让我活到90岁以上，考虑到那时要请个24小时护理工，或者人事不省送养老院，这些额外费用，恐怕还要卖掉一幢出租房才行。
为何要讲这些，就是告诉现在的中年朋友（平均年龄40岁），再工作25到30年退休，积累一笔充裕的财产是相当可行的。我和太太的双方父母在世的时候，都需要我们负担一部分生活费，特别是最后几年，花钱就像流水。我们所有的财富，都是在美国靠自己奋斗取得的。感谢美国接受我们，感谢美国给我们机会致富。
如何投资？我一开始是利用IRA投资股票，大约94年开始投资房产。儿子大学毕业后，我和他讨论过投资股票的事，今天写出来和大家分享。首先，在美国只有极少一部分人能预测市场，而且每一个人只能预测其中很小很小一部分的市场。比如，我儿子刚毕业，老板就分配他研究communication方面的市场，每周工作90小时以上。年薪账面上是很高，仔细一算，每小时20元都不到，但这种训练是必须的。而且可以告诉大家，他们是绝对不会把任何诀窍告诉别人。父母都不会。所以，股市大亨看上去很少，其实是人家低调。文学城有“股票派”和“掏粪派”有时大家不服气，这是正常的。没有金刚钻，就别揽瓷器活。而且，即便是顶尖的股票专家，在他的领域里，能正确预测股票走向概率的不会超过七成。一般人就是五成左右。所以大部分买股票赚钱的，都是长期持有，和股市共舞。
举个自己的例子：1995年，道指大约是4000点，三月初是2万8千点。现在经过大跌熔断，周五收盘2万2千点。换句话讲，当年投资1万元，现在市值大约是5.5万。我在同期买的一个出租房，4万五千，现在卖出到手现金大约是25万到30万之间。但这不能就此得出结论：投资房产比股票好。你当年买了1万元指数股票，接下来你几乎没有再花精力和时间，而买了房子出租，你会付出很多精力和时间。如果你把这些精力和时间用来赚钱，岂不更好。
投资股票和房地产的人，一定在某些方面有过人的本事。投资股票的能看懂各种曲线，对某些行业的经营方式，技术水平，相关联系，各种报表都要有过人的理解能力。投资房产，最好是汗滴男，还要会和银行打交道，得到优惠利率，对房客黑白两手都会，必要时还要上法庭，身心疲惫。
哪个容易？我的体会是投资股票。因为如上面讲的，能预测股市，哪怕是很小一块，都是非常困难的。华尔街的名言：一般投资股票的，和一只猴子跳上键盘买股票，收益相差无几。正是因为难，中国人投资股票的人很多，但赚钱不多，赚大钱的必须是专业人才里的专业。当我明白这个道理后，我买股票基本就是指数股，根本不用花很多时间去研究某个具体股票，而且现在买进卖出都不收手续费。比如今年3月中旬开始，我新开一个投资账户，放入10万元，每周平均投资2万元指数股票。今天看了一下，回收率大约10%，还算不错。股市上有许多指数股，随便挑一个就行，每个投资1万元，买10个指数股。这10万元投资，花费时间大约一个小时。不是讲我放弃投资房产，主要是投资平衡，另外年龄大了，体力不够了。
就我的近30年投资股市和房产经历而言，哪个回报好？房产。因为我花了大量的时间掏粪，时间就是金钱。喜欢什么？股票，因为资金回收相对容易。还继续投资吗？当然，二个都继续投资。
Tuesday, April 14, 2020
Amazon (AMZN) Receives Bullish Praise From a Wall Street Pro
COVID-19’s disruption won’t impact Amazon’s (AMZN) “leading position in e-commerce and cloud services,” so claims Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth.
It
is hard to argue. If any company has proven its resilience in the face
of the global pandemic, it is the e-commerce giant. Amazon shares are up
by 17% year-to-date, compared to the S&P's 15% drop.
Amazon’s
product portfolio is so wide and all-encompassing that according to
Feinseth, its business performance will only accelerate over the near
and long term.
Where
to start? Never mind the fact COVID-19 has driven consumers to further
rely on Amazon’s delivery services, the list of growth drivers makes for
an increasingly long read.
Take,
for example, Amazon’s voice service Alexa. Amazon has over 70% market
share in the voice home control technology market with “hundreds of
millions of Alexa enabled devices that customers interact with billions
of times a day.” Alexa’s features are constantly upgraded with new
capabilities added on a regular basis.
Or
AWS (Amazon Web Services). As Feinseth notes, “with $35 billion in
revenue over the NTM and greater margins than many of its other business
lines,” it is the world’s largest cloud provider, with a client list
including “many of the world’s leading companies.” The imminent rollout
of 5G networks should further drive adoption of cloud services, which
along with the expanding reach of edge computing will “drive further AWS
growth.”
What
about healthcare initiatives? Amazon bought internet pharmacy PillPack
in 2018, and last year rebranded it to PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy.
Amazon plans to move “beyond the mail delivery of prepackaged
medications into fulfilling prescriptions for acute medical needs.” The
retail prescription drug business is one worth more than $300 billion a
year, providing another significant growth opportunity.
With
a strong balance sheet and cash flows which continue “to fund ongoing
innovation and key growth initiatives,” The 5-star analyst need no more
convincing. Feinseth concludes, “AMZN's industry-leading position and
innovative ability will continue to drive an increasing Return on
Capital, as well as growing Economic Profit that will continue to lead
to greater shareholder value creation. I believe significant upside
exists from current levels and continue to recommend purchase.”
Accordingly,
Feinseth reiterated a Buy rating on Amazon shares but did not set a
price target. (To watch Feinseth’s track record, click here)
The
rest of the Street is hardly less effusive. The analyst consensus rates
Amazon a Strong Buy based on 38 Buys and 1 Hold rating. The average
price target is $2,433 and suggests possible upside of 12%. (See Amazon stock analysis on TipRanks)
Monday, April 13, 2020
First, some facts: According to Burning Glass, which collects and
analyzes millions of job postings from across the country, projected
growth in Azure-related jobs is expected to hit 38.4 percent over the
next decade. The median salary for those with Azure skills, meanwhile,
is $100,868. Burning Glass breaks down the job titles that demand Azure:
Meanwhile, Burning Glass pegs growth for AWS-related jobs as even more robust, hitting 45.6 percent over the next 10 years. Current median average salary for AWS-related jobs is $104,088, which is pretty good, especially compared to the “average” tech salary of $94,000! Here are some of the top skills:
Whether you choose Azure or AWS, keep in mind that you might switch to the other at some point. Also, some businesses want cloud architects and developers who are skilled at both. Fortunately, Microsoft and Amazon have designed their respective platforms to make them as “sticky” as possible; they integrate with a full range of developer tools, operating systems (Linux), IDEs (Eclipse, etc.), database services, and shells (bash, Powershell, etc.). There’s a lot to learn (to put it mildly), but also quite a bit of versatility in terms of getting unique projects done. Start with the IDEs and shells and languages you’re comfortable with.
Top Jobs That Need Azure Skills
| Occupation | Total Job Postings | Job Postings Requesting Skill(s)(#) | Job Postings Requesting Skill(s)(%) | Projected Growth Within Occupation | Associated Education Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software Developer / Engineer | 1,073,079 | 33,960 | 3.2% | +30.7% | Bachelor's degree |
| Computer Systems Engineer / Architect | 187,710 | 10,711 | 5.7% | +9.3% | Bachelor's degree |
| Network Engineer / Architect | 177,163 | 8,731 | 4.9% | +6.5% | Bachelor's degree |
| Network / Systems Administrator | 129,153 | 5,852 | 4.5% | +6.1% | Bachelor's degree |
| Cyber / Information Security Engineer / Analyst | 167,539 | 4,726 | 2.8% | +28.5% | Bachelor's degree |
| Database Administrator | 118,937 | 3,600 | 3.0% | +11.5% | Bachelor's degree |
| IT Project Manager | 207,493 | 3,547 | 1.7% | +9.3% | Bachelor's degree |
| Business Intelligence Architect / Developer | 68,382 | 3,490 | 5.1% | +30.7% | Bachelor's degree |
| Database Architect | 50,741 | 2,316 | 4.6% | +9.3% | Bachelor's degree |
| Business / Management Analyst | 306,734 | 2,278 | 0.7% | +14.3% | Bachelor's degree |
Meanwhile, Burning Glass pegs growth for AWS-related jobs as even more robust, hitting 45.6 percent over the next 10 years. Current median average salary for AWS-related jobs is $104,088, which is pretty good, especially compared to the “average” tech salary of $94,000! Here are some of the top skills:
Top Jobs That Need AWS Skills
| Occupation | Total Job Postings | Job Postings Requesting Skill(s)(#) | Job Postings Requesting Skill(s)(%) | Projected Growth Within Occupation | Associated Education Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software Developer / Engineer | 1,073,079 | 36,156 | 3.4% | +30.7% | Bachelor's degree |
| Computer Systems Engineer / Architect | 187,710 | 6,245 | 3.3% | +9.3% | Bachelor's degree |
| Network Engineer / Architect | 177,163 | 6,114 | 3.5% | +6.5% | Bachelor's degree |
| Cyber / Information Security Engineer / Analyst | 167,539 | 3,993 | 2.4% | +28.5% | Bachelor's degree |
| Web Developer | 126,014 | 3,739 | 3.0% | +14.9% | Bachelor's degree |
| Network / Systems Administrator | 129,153 | 2,605 | 2.0% | +6.1% | Bachelor's degree |
| Database Administrator | 118,937 | 1,859 | 1.6% | +11.5% | Bachelor's degree |
| IT Project Manager | 207,493 | 1,809 | 0.9% | +9.3% | Bachelor's degree |
| Data Engineer | 37,402 | 1,800 | 4.8% | +11.5% | Bachelor's degree |
| Database Architect | 50,741 | 1,759 | 3.5% | +9.3% | Bachelor's degree |
Whether you choose Azure or AWS, keep in mind that you might switch to the other at some point. Also, some businesses want cloud architects and developers who are skilled at both. Fortunately, Microsoft and Amazon have designed their respective platforms to make them as “sticky” as possible; they integrate with a full range of developer tools, operating systems (Linux), IDEs (Eclipse, etc.), database services, and shells (bash, Powershell, etc.). There’s a lot to learn (to put it mildly), but also quite a bit of versatility in terms of getting unique projects done. Start with the IDEs and shells and languages you’re comfortable with.
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