Friday, July 20, 2007

7 Options You Need to Know

Here are 7 options to watch for today. This list comes directly from the TradingMarkets Options Indicators page. The list is created using OptionVue options analysis software.
Most Underpriced Calls: These are the most under priced calls of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Explosion List finds groups of calls for individual equities that are under priced, this list finds the most under priced individual calls. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely under priced.

Bear Stearns Companies Aug 155 Calls (NYSE:BSC - News). BSC's PowerRating is 5.

Most Underpriced Puts: These are the most under priced puts of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Explosion List finds groups of puts for individual equities that are under priced, this list finds the most under priced individual puts. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely under priced.

Google Inc. Sep 490 Puts (NasdaqGS:GOOG - News). GOOG's PowerRating is 6.

Most Overpriced Calls: These are the most overpriced calls of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Implosion List finds groups of calls for individual equities that are overpriced, this list finds the most overpriced individual calls. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely overpriced.

Baidu.com Aug 230 Calls (NasdaqGS:BIDU - News). BIDU's PowerRating is 8.

Most Overpriced Puts: These are the most overpriced puts of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Implosion List finds groups of puts for individual equities that are overpriced, this list finds the most overpriced individual puts. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely overpriced.

Southern Copper Corp. Sep 100 Puts (NYSE:PCU - News). PCU' PowerRating is 3.

Stocks with Abnormal Call Volume: These are stocks which showed unusual call option volume not easily explained by arbitrage operations. The appearance of a stock on the Call Volume Alerts list suggests a possible takeover, extraordinarily good earnings report, or other news which may favorably affect the stock.

Seaspan Corp. (NYSE:SSW - News). SSW's PowerRating is 4. 

Stocks with Abnormal Put Volume: These are stocks which showed unusual put option volume not easily explained by arbitrage operations. The appearance of a stock on the Put Volume Alerts list suggests an extraordinarily negative earnings report, or other news which may negatively affect the stock.

SPDR S&P Homebuilders (AMEX:XHB - News). XHB's PowerRating is 4.

Abnormal Put/Call $ Volume: These stocks have the highest dollar put volume in relation to their call volume. These high ratios are indicative of extreme bearish sentiment in the underlying stock.

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE - News). PFE's PowerRating is 5.

PowerRatings are courtesy of TradingMarkets.com

Reminder: We are in no way recommending the purchase or sale of these options. This article is intended for education purposes only. Trading should be based on your own understanding of market conditions, price patterns and risk; our information is designed to contribute to your understanding.

Monday, July 09, 2007

Vendor vs supplier. Supply Chain.

One of my wise bosses once said 'You buy hotdogs from vendors BUT that you partner with suppliers.

What keep a director of purchasing awake at night is the need to continually generate savings and its impact on the supplier selection.

His strengths are: project management, contracts, teaming, research, financial analysis and negotiations.

Friday, July 06, 2007

Trading Style - Overview

Currently, my trading is focused primarily on stage 2 stocks. This is my bread and butter as I am a bull by nature. My repertoire of stocks is mainly focused on Nasdaq stocks, however, recently I’ve had success with a couple of NYSE stocks. I prefer Nasdaq level II screens for intraday trading because it allows me to place my bid at the same level as the proprietary traders of the Wall Street firms. My preference is for highly liquid stocks in the $20 - $100 range that trade in an orderly fashion. I avoid charts with too many gaps and/or masses of overlapping candles. Anyone, who’s been reading this blog regularly over a period of time, is aware by now that my favorite sector is semiconductors.

Nightly Preparation:

Using Stockcharts.com, I have created a folder for each major tech sector where I save updated charts of all stocks that meet my criteria outlined above. I review all of these charts nightly to look for developing patterns, trends, consolidations, etc. I take note of the charts which have potential to move in the following trading session and I outline which entry price would be the best entry point ie. a breakout price and a pullback to support price (breakouts on high volume are my favorite setup). I set alerts for these trade setups in eSignal. I also review Trade-Ideas.com late day scans for any potential breakouts/breakdowns and add alerts for these as well. Finally, I run a few of my own pre-defined scans and add alerts as required. I then plot key support/resistance lines, pivot points and trendlines on my eSiganl charts for the stocks I plan to trade the following day.

I also check Briefing.com for stocks trading up or down in AH (after hours). AH movers are especially important when they are bellwether as they have the potential to move the entire market or sector.

Before the market opens I review Briefing.com for important news that will move the market or individual names. Upgrades/downgrades, especially by notable firms, are important. I also check the trade counts/rates for stock moving in the pre-market to see if there are any interesting gap-up plays. Gap-ups and gap downs are usually good during the early phase of earnings season and/or a strong stage two market rally, however, they have not been a big part of my trading strategy since we’ve been in this narrow Nasdaq trading channel. Finally, I look at the NDX and S&P futures and the QQQQ intraday support and resistance to see how the market will open and try to get some hints as to direction.

Trading Tools:

Here is a list of the trading tools and software I use:


* eSignal – This is used as my main trading platform to track charts, level II, time and sales, etc.

* Interactive Brokers – Execution – (commissions are cheap – half a penny per share with a 1 dollar minimum per trade)

N.B. I don’t believe in fixed commission fees for day trading even though most of these firms offer software and news services as part of the package. In day trading you have to be in control of order sizing to be able to manage your risk. Fixed commissions force you to increase your size and are therefore, hazardous to your trading. Furthermore, the charting software incorporated in the fixed fee commission packages is often times second rate when compared to the better pay for service platforms.

* Trade-Ideas.com – Best scanning tool on the market because of the built in filters. (refer to link on my right side panel)

* Daytrade Team.com – Excellent educational and stock picking service for day and swing traders, a must for beginners. (refer to link in my upper right hand side panel)

* Stockcharts.com – Real time Extra. – for intraday scanning and creating folders of potential intraday trade setups.

* Briefing.com – market moving news


Key Ingredients to my chart anaylsis:

Price, volume, candlestick patterns, support and resistance, moving averages, ADX (momentum), and trendlines. I evaluate all of these ingredients on the daily timeframe. On the intraday timesframe, I do not always look at the ADX. My most used timeframes for intraday trading are the 5 and 15 minute views. I always validate a trade setup on 2-3 different time frames before pulling the trigger.

Three Day Consolidation Breakout - My Criteria

I will elaborate more on individual trade setups in future posts. Here is an example of my criteria for a three day consolidation pattern breakout which I used successfully several times this past week, most notably with OVTI and NEW.

I look for stocks that are:
1. In an uptrend ( at least one higher low and one higher high) but preferably a stage two uptrend as these setups have a higher degree of success;
2. At least three days of consolidation in a narrow trading range preferably at the uppermost level of the recent trading range;
3. lower volume during the consolidation period;
4. An attempt to break out the day prior to the actual breakout - this usually is a retest of the highs of the consolidation range;
5. And finally, I prefer when the stock closes at or near its highs of the consolidation range on the eve of the the actual breakout. However, this last point is not always met and does not preclude me from taking the trade.

Trades

1/26/2024 Sold 68 shares of NVDA at $616. going up too quick and chips may delay.